Unitree IPO oversubscribed 5,000+ times in record retail frenzy
Humanoid robotics gets its first public-market stress test this month, and retail investors just showed up in record numbers — even as the analysts watching the deal wonder whether the machines can actually earn their keep.
Unitree Robotics' Shanghai STAR Market IPO closed its retail subscription more than 5,000 times oversubscribed in the online tranche — a 0.018 percent lot-winning rate, roughly one allotment per 5,500 applications — with Bloomberg's tally at 5,526 times and Reuters reporting more than 8,000 times. The deal, priced at 150.8 yuan ($22.40) per share, raises $900 million at a valuation of about $9 billion and marks the first humanoid robot maker to list in mainland China. We covered the pricing in depth last week — Unitree prices $9B humanoid IPO, first in mainland China — and the frenzy now surrounding it is the story's second act: the stock already trades at roughly four times the IPO price on a Hyperliquid perpetual contract, and the debut around August 19 is being read as a referendum on the entire embodied-AI sector.
The demand is real; so is the skepticism about what these robots can do. "To be honest, they're fascinating. They can dance and all that – but never seen them doing any real housework," Hao Hong, managing partner of Lotus Asset Management, told CNBC, calling current humanoids "a large-sized toy." VP Bank's Dominik Pross notes most models run only a few hours before recharging and must be retrained for each task, however simple. The economics cut both ways: Wood Mackenzie expects the global humanoid fleet to top 10 million units by 2035 with prices down 93 percent since 2020 to about $58,000, and projects Unitree's $16,000 G1 costs just $82 a year in electricity — but also warns 10 million robots could strain power grids already stretched by AI data centers. Unitree's own numbers explain the caution: revenue quadrupled last year, yet first-quarter adjusted profit fell more than 52 percent on R&D and marketing spend, and nearly three-quarters of humanoid revenue still comes from research and education buyers.
The stakes go beyond one debut. Rival AgiBot, which outsold Unitree in the first half of 2026, is headed for a Hong Kong listing and Leju Robotics for Shenzhen, so this week's pop — or flop — will set the price for an entire pipeline of robot IPOs. The US import ban on foreign humanoids and quadrupeds, which landed days before the offering, puts a political ceiling on Unitree's 13 percent US revenue even as Beijing's 10,000-unit deployment push props up domestic demand. Tesla, meanwhile, is converting Fremont EV lines to build Optimus, betting the same thesis from the other side of the Pacific.
What to watch: the August 19 debut — and whether a 200-times-earnings valuation survives first contact with a balance sheet.
Five thousand times oversubscribed for robots that still struggle with housework — is this humanoid mania pricing in the future, or just a very expensive bet on it? Tell us in the comments.
Sources: CNBC · Reuters · Bloomberg · South China Morning Post · MarketWatch
